ניסיון

The coronavirus pandemic has generated an additional crisis, joining the healthcare and economic crises – the public’s lack of trust in the credibility of experts. Many prefer to rely on “Dr. Google” and ignore scientists, physicians, and economists who offer professional opinions on news broadcasts and at Knesset hearings. What are the reasons for this lack of trust, and how can this situation be rectified? To find out, read the insights from a recent INSS conference

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract from the urgency of security threats, which remain significant. In the face of this uncertainty, Israel will need to prioritize attention to the internal crisis; adjust itself to the competition between the great powers, which is affected by the pandemic; adapt to the Biden administration and coordinate with it on Iran and other issues; expand alliances and normalization agreements with additional countries in the region; and be ready for military escalation in the north and in the Gaza Strip arena, which could occur even though all of the actors involved prefer to avoid it.

Hamas’s takeover of Gaza in June 2007 created a new reality on Egypt’s northern border, which constitutes the only border of the Gaza Strip that is not under Israeli control. Over the past decade, Egyptian interests have evolved in accordance with regional changes as well as the respective postures of the three presidents who ruled Egypt in this period: Husni Mubarak, Mohamed Morsi, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. In tandem, Hamas’s control over Gaza has incurred a range of implications for Egyptian interests at the military, political, economic, and public levels. What follows is an overview of the principal trends that Egypt experienced over the last decade relating to Hamas’s rule in Gaza, which have led Cairo to increase its involvement in the intra-Palestinian reconciliation efforts, reach security and economic understandings with Hamas, and seek to prevent violent escalation between Hamas and Israel.

At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other arenas, and in its efforts to station operational capabilities against Israel; Hezbollah’s efforts to achieve large-scale precision attack capabilities; and Hamas’s efforts to ease the pressure on Gaza and influence the parameters for an arrangement with Israel. The targeted killing of Iranian Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by the United States in early 2020 lends added weight to the assessment regarding the potential for escalation. The event creates a new context and might become a strategic turning point. These and other challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis in Israel and strategic competition between the world powers, which in turn generates functional difficulties in the international system. The unequivocal conclusion from these developments is the need for Israel to formulate a new strategy.